Another season, more false hope. Here are ten predictions from a non-Leaf fan about the upcoming Maple Leaf season.
1. James Reimer is the real deal
It's certainly unlikely that Reimer will improve upon his stellar rookie season, in which he won 20 games in 37 starts and posted a tidy .921 save percentage. It was a perfect storm of factors in 2010-2011: the league didn't know much about Reimer or his weaknesses, and the Leafs in the second half of the season were a loose, confident bunch playing with nothing to lose (or to be more accurate, nothing to gain). However, I think that Reimer has "the right stuff", so to speak. He's not going to go the way of an Andrew Raycroft or a Jim Carey...his relaxed attitude and natural athleticism should pave the way for a successful sophomore campaign. The numbers may not be elite simply because the team he's playing for isn't very good, but Reimer will give the Leafs a solid foundation in net, something they haven't had since the days of Curtis Joseph and Ed Belfour.
2. Jonas Gustavsson is not the real deal
Highly touted entering last season, Gustavsson struggled mightily, particularly in the second half of the season when his job was challenged by Reimer. Now that Gustavsson is the clear backup and not facing as much pressure, some have predicted he may blossom. I don't see it. Gustavsson is big and athletic, but his vision simply hasn't developed at the NHL level. Even in preseason games, he's been noticeably slow to track the puck, oftentimes just crouching down into the butterfly and praying that the puck will hit him. In today's NHL, where the majority of goals are scored on scrambles, deflections and rebounds, Gustavsson may be an adequate backup, but I'm closing the book on him as a viable #1 goaltender.
3. Two-thirds of last year's surprise line will continue to succeed, while one will regress
Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin aren't exactly anyone's idea of a great 1-2 punch (no one will be confusing them for Datsyuk and Zetterberg), but by the standards of Leaf Nation, the effort they put forward in 2010-2011 was a more-than-pleasant surprise. Grabovski put up 29 goals, 58 points and a sterling +14 rating. Unlike in 2009-2010, his effort night-in and night-out was superb at both ends of the ice, and he emerged as one of the least likely leaders on the team. Kulemin also broke out with 30 goals, 57 points and a +7 rating. I predict that both will continue to thrive as solid two-way players who flirt with 30 goals and 60 points.
A regression is coming, though, from their third linemate, Clarke MacArthur. While he will no doubt remain a fan favourite with his tough checking and timely goals, it seems likely that his actual production will begin to slide. MacArthur finished second on the team with 62 points last season, but scored only 22 in 33 games after the All-Star break. Expect that general rate to continue, leading to a 50-55 season...still solid, but not quite at the heights of 2010-2011.
4. Phil Kessel won't get 40 goals, but he'll be very close
Kessel, the most frustrating (and perhaps most unfairly maligned) player on the Maple Leafs, is constantly referred to by Leaf fans as a "40-goal scorer" when they defend the trade that sent two first round picks to the Boston Bruins. The only problem with that is that he's never actually scored 40 goals. This year things seem to be shaping up well...most importantly, he'll be centered by Team USA teammate Tim Connolly, a huge upgrade from Tyler Bozak, and he'll figure to have less of a roller-coaster season than in 2010-2011.
The big question with Kessel, of course, is whether or not he can produce consistently enough to avoid the crippling (and team-destroying) slumps that plagued his 2010-2011 season. There can be no more 10-game or 12-game goalless droughts...for the Leafs to have any chance to succeed, Kessel will have to be more like the player he was in the second half of the season, when he scored 30 points in 33 games and improved his ghastly +/- to -1 (as opposed to the -19 it was in the first half).
5. John-Michael Liles will be loved, and hated, by Maple Leaf fans as the season progresses.
Liles is a power-play specialist much like the departed Tomas Kaberle, and since Maple Leaf fans tend to love any newcomers to their team (as well as vastly overrate them), Liles may enjoy a nice honeymoon in Toronto if he puts up points early in the season, which he is very capable of doing. In 2010-2011 with Colorado, Liles got off to a scorching start, scoring 23 points in the first 24 games and also sporting a solid +9 rating. A start like that and Maple Leaf fans would be willing to christen Liles the second-coming of Borje Salming.
But with Liles, there's a darkside, and it's his intensity in the defensive zone. When the offense dries up, and it will at some point in this season, so will the goodwill that comes from Leaf fans. When the points aren't coming, Liles is exactly what most Leaf fans hate: soft in his own end, a turnover machine and lacking any sort of sandpapery edge to redeem himself. If there is any downstretch for the Leafs at this point, you can bet that Liles will be one of the main targets of the radio call-in crowd.
6. Dion Phaneuf will play for the entire season like he did in the second half of 2010-2011
The fall of Dion Phaneuf from the peaks that he reached in his early Calgary Flames' days is well-documented. After averaging 18 goals, 53 points and a +9 rating in his first three seasons, Phaneuf has averaged just 10 goals, 36 points and a -4 rating in the last three years. But there are signs that he may have shaken the funk...in the second-half of last year, playing mostly with Keith Aulie, Phaneuf seemed freer and more relaxed. His play was a lot closer to his early Calgary days...even his thunderous hits returned. I'm not sure we'll ever see Phaneuf get close to the Norris-nominee level that some Leaf fans hope he will, but I do think we can expect to see a solid season from Phaneuf now that he is comfortable in his role as Leafs' captain. Expect 15 goals, 45-50 points, perhaps an even +/- rating (an accomplishment playing on a subpar team like the Leafs), and some thunderous hits.
7. Jake Gardiner will make an impact this season, Nazem Kadri will not
Gardiner, acquired in the trade with Anaheim for Francois Beauchemin, has impressed everyone at training camp and in the preseason this year. He seems to have tremendous offensive upside and enough speed to be able to recover from his mistakes and get back to the defensive zone. Like Carl Gunnarsson and Keith Aulie, Gardiner will no doubt endear himself to Maple Leaf fans and management this season, providing decent minutes on a young but promising defensive corps.
Unfortunately, the jury is still out on Nazem Kadri, and I believe it will remain out for the 2011-2012 season. A knee injury has already set him back, but before that Kadri was hardly setting the world on fire, having mustered just two assists in five preseason games. Kadri still has the reputation of being too soft and not committed enough to the game when he doesn't have the puck on his stick. Since the Maple Leafs appear set with their top six forwards, and since Kadri isn't nearly gritty enough to justify a spot on the checking lines, it may be another season in which Kadri seesaws back and forth between the Maple Leafs and the AHL.
8. Mike Komisarek will be repeatedly booed throughout the season for his dreadful play
Oops, I said that this would be 10 Fearless Predictions. I guess it's only nine, plus this one, which is a prediction on the order of "the sun will rise tomorrow". So here's a bolder one: Brian Burke will somehow find someone to take Mike Komisarek off his hands in a trade, and Leaf fans will be spared his presence for another full season.
9. Ron Wilson will not be the coach at the end of this season
This prediction may actually make a majority of Maple Leaf fans happy if it does come true...although it will no doubt mean that the Leafs have endured another failure of a season (more on that in prediction #10). Wilson has not exactly endeared himself to Toronto fans or the media with his far-from-charming blend of surliness, sarcasm and smugness (a trifecta of negative "s" adjectives). Of course, Pat Quinn was arguably just as big of a jerk, but he delivered a winning team on the ice (how much credit Quinn deserves for that is up for debate). With Wilson, though, the team has missed the postseason for three seasons in a row, and patience is wearing thin. Brian Burke has professed his devotion to Wilson over and over again, but Burke will soon find that he needs to look out for his own survival, even if that means cutting ties with his good friend. I will be shocked if Burke rushes to sign Wilson to a contract extension, even if the Maple Leafs get off to a decent start. The only thing that will save Wilson's job is a postseason appearance. Which leads me to prediction #10, the most important one of all:
10. The drought will continue
Even the most optimistic Maple Leaf fan would concede that the team's 44-year Stanley Cup drought will most likely extend to 45 years. But there is a feeling in Leaf Nation that this could be the year in which the team finally makes it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2004 (a string of futility bettered only by the Florida Panthers). I will concede that the Maple Leafs are a better team than the one that started training camp at this time last year. If Reimer gives the team the kind of goaltending he did last season, then the Maple Leafs have already solved one of the biggest problems of the past several years: the inability of their goalies to make the big save and give their team a chance to win.
But there are still problems here. The defense, while potentially very good, is also young and inexperienced, and will no doubt go through some growing pains. The biggest problem is the lack of firepower on offense. There simply isn't a player on this team that I can see getting over 70 points. Now, there are teams in the NHL that can make the playoffs without a 70-point scorer (the Stanley Cup champions, the Boston Bruins, are a good example). But they roll four lines that all have the ability to score, and they are so organized defensively and on special teams that they can make up for their lack of scoring. The Maple Leafs simply haven't demonstrated that organizational structure yet under Ron Wilson, so it's difficult to imagine them wondrously lucking into it in 2011-2012.
The Leafs' biggest problem is that the other teams in the East have noticeably improved. I'm dubious on the Florida Panthers' offseason spending spree (spending money doesn't matter if the players you spend it on aren't actually any good), but there is no doubt that the Sabres and Rangers have improved, while the Devils shouldn't be as much of a disaster as they were last season and the Jets (formerly Thrashers) may be inspired by their move to Winnipeg. Sad as it is for Leaf fans, I just can't in good conscious say that they will make the playoffs in a conference that has Buffalo, Boston, Montreal, the Rangers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington and Tampa Bay.
The Leafs will compete hard, and if they get the right breaks, they could be one of the Cinderella playoff teams of 2011-2012 (there always seem to be one or two). There is just so much that has to go right, and if recent history is any indication, not all of it will.
